Estimating the cost of a new technology intensive automotive product: A case study approach.

Estimating cost of new technology intensive products is very ad hoc within the automotive industry. There is a need to develop a systematic approach to the cost estimating, which will make the estimates more realistic. This research proposes a methodology that uses parametric, analogy and detailed estimating techniques to enable a cost to be built for an automotive powertrain product with a high content of new technology. The research defines a process for segregating new or emerging technologies from current technologies to enable the various costing techniques to be utilised. The cost drivers from an internal combustion engine's characteristics to facilitate a cost estimate for high- volume production are also presented. A process to enable a costing expert to either build an estimate for the new technology under analysis or use a comparator and then develop a variant for the new system is also discussed. Due to the open nature of the statement ‘new technology’, research is also conducted to provide a meaningful definition applicable to the automotive industry and this pro

A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

A review of multi-criteria decision making methods for enhanced maintenance delivery

Conventionally there is a strong relation between manufacturing and services in complex engineering industries. For companies which aim to last in the competitive manufacturing market choosing appropriate decision making methods to improve their maintenance delivery has a vital role. The aim of this paper is to review Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) models, evaluate each method and do a critical comparison to assess them from a maintenance management point of view. The first section of this paper reviews MCDM methods in different literature, and then the second part develops a set of criteria to classify different techniques. At the end methods are compared based on developed criteria. This paper assesses different MCDM models, and provides a framework to select approaches for maintenance management

ADAPTIVE SEARCH AND THE PRELIMINARY DESIGN OF GAS TURBINE BLADE COOLING SYSTEMS

This research concerns the integration of Adaptive Search (AS) technique such as the Genetic Algorithms (GA) with knowledge based software to develop a research prototype of an Adaptive Search Manager (ASM). The developed approach allows to utilise both quantitative and qualitative information in engineering design decision making. A Fuzzy Expert System manipulates AS software within the design environment concerning the preliminary design of gas turbine blade cooling systems. Steady state cooling hole geometry models have been developed for the project in collaboration with Rolls Royce plc. The research prototype of ASM uses a hybrid of Adaptive Restricted Tournament Selection (ARTS) and Knowledge Based Hill Climbing (KBHC) to identify multiple "good" design solutions as potential design options. ARTS is a GA technique that is particularly suitable for real world problems having multiple sub-optima. KBHC uses information gathered during the ARTS search as well as information from the designer to perform a deterministic hill climbing. Finally, a local stochastic hill climbing fine tunes the "good" designs. Design solution sensitivity, design variable sensitivities and constraint sensitivities are calculated following Taguchi's methodology, which extracts sensitivity information with a very small number of model evaluations. Each potential design option is then qualitatively evaluated separately for manufacturability, choice of materials and some designer's special preferences using the knowledge of domain experts. In order to guarantee that the qualitative evaluation module can evaluate any design solution from the entire design space with a reasonably small number of rules, a novel knowledge representation technique is developed. The knowledge is first separated in three categories: inter-variable knowledge, intra-variable knowledge and heuristics. Inter-variable knowledge and intra-variable knowledge are then integrated using a concept of compromise. Information about the "good" design solutions is presented to the designer through a designer's interface for decision support.Rolls Royce plc., Bristol (UK

A Generic library of problem-solving methods for scheduling applications

In this paper we describe a generic library of problem-solving methods (PSMs) for scheduling applications. Although, some attempts have been made in the past at developing libraries of scheduling methods, these only provide limited coverage: in some cases they are specific to a particular scheduling domain; in other cases they simply implement a particular scheduling technique; in other cases they fail to provide the required degree of depth and precision. Our library is based on a structured approach, whereby we first develop a scheduling task ontology, and then construct a task-specific but domain independent model of scheduling problem-solving, which generalises from specific approaches to scheduling problem-solving. Different PSMs are then constructed uniformly by specialising the generic model of scheduling problem-solving. Our library has been evaluated on a number of real-life and benchmark applications to demonstrate its generic and comprehensive nature

The Epistemology of scheduling problems

Scheduling is a knowledge-intensive task spanning over many activities in day-to-day life. It deals with the temporally-bound assignment of jobs to resources. Although scheduling has been extensively researched in the AI community for the past 30 years, efforts have primarily focused on specific applications, algorithms, or 'scheduling shells' and no comprehensive analysis exists on the nature of scheduling problems, which provides a formal account of what scheduling is, independently of the way scheduling problems can be approached. Research on KBS development by reuse makes use of ontologies, to provide knowledge-level specifications of reusable KBS components. In this paper we describe a task ontology, which formally characterises the nature of scheduling problems, independently of particular application domains and in-dependently of how the problems can be solved. Our results provide a comprehensive, domain-independent and formally specified refer-ence model for scheduling applications. This can be used as the ba-sis for further analyses of the class of scheduling problems and also as a concrete reusable resource to support knowledge acquisition and system development in scheduling applications

A Methodology for Variability Reduction in Manufacturing Cost Estimating in the Automotive Industry based on Design Features

Organised by: Cranfield UniversitySmall to medium manufacturing companies are coming to realise the increasing importance of performing fast and accurate cost estimates at the early stages of projects to address customers’ requests for quotation. However, they cannot afford the implementation of a knowledge-based cost estimating software. This paper explains the development and validation of a consistent methodology for the cost estimating of manufactured parts (focused on pistons) based on the design features. The research enabled the identification of the sources of variability in cost estimates, and the main one is the lack of formal procedures for the cost estimates in manufacturing SMEs. Finally, a software prototype was developed that reduces the variability in the cost estimates by defining a formal procedure, following the most appropriate cost estimating techniques.Mori Seiki – The Machine Tool Compan